The reason for this decline in the medium term & 39; was the progressive weakening of the U.S. economy & 39; as he tries to fight against the effects of the credit crunch and a housing crisis. Recent cases Schiller data showed that the USA housing prices fell for the eighth consecutive month with most countries? -= S regions on the decline. On Thursday, banking stocks suffering their worst decline for years as U.S. giant Citigroup has been battered by analysts down the grades. This is & 39; s add to a recent decrease of 57% in third quarter profits compared to last year & 39;. Citigroup are now in danger of falling outside the top 10 U.S. companies by market capitalization. Top of the list Exxon Mobil also disappointed estimate below with earnings despite record oil prices. To crown all these negative data, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has recorded saying that the U.S. dollar trade deficit implied the erosion & 39; and with an acceleration of decline.
Of current short-term reason for the decline in dollar last week is widely expected quarter point reduction in interest rates & 39; by the FOMC. It should be noted, however, was unusually hawkish language that accompanied the statement. One economist called the label? -- subtle as a body? -- because of how fat she said & 39; c was the last cut for some time. Hawkish comments from MPC combined to send the USD / EUR exchange rate within touching distance of $ 2.09 to pound.
Equity markets & 39; first welcomed the positive decision of the FOMC, pushing the & 39; S & P 500 has spent the last week? -= S high and the Nasdaq to the new senior & 39; for the year 2007. On Thursday, but all the good work was cancelled as earnings fears and reducing the likelihood of further reductions highlighted sellers in force. The decrease was the same order of magnitude as the mauling on October 19 which has a lot of shock headlines in the mainstream press. This time, it is hardly & 39; said. When the press stand for something, May pay to go in the opposite direction & 39;. When the same thing is met by silence, it might be time to get & 39; really worried.
Notable ads next week industrialists United Kingdom are the production figures on Monday, non-US figures on agricultural productivity , On Wednesday, the trade balance and the number of consumer data on Friday. Throughout that & 39; it expects heavy data week, and we haven? T -= even mentioned the MPC and ECB decisions on interest rates & 39; Thursday. The consensus estimate is that the two central banks announce no change statements, but never, he is reading between the lines on the next decision that will cause the & 39; excitement. ECB President Trichet is speaking after the statement.
Last week? -= S German PMI figures were well below estimates, which could call into question the & 39; widely held view that the next ECB will move. Friday? -= S May payroll numbers indicated that life in the U.S. economy still & 39;. The dollar May have yet to fall, but perhaps Greenspan? -= S decline accelerated May failed, in particular against the euro & 39;. If the ECB keep rates on hold in coming months, or even cuts, as some now think that they can & 39;, then the dollar? -= S decline could become more measured.
Therefore, a long-term trade that resumed on the possibility of a slow decline in the dollar could be interesting. Operators BetOnMarkets.com that ar not affect trade on & 39; EUR / USD with the trigger set at 1.50 over 180 days to pay a 78% return. If the dollar falls only a little more, stay or strengthens against the euro & 39; trade wins. Trade & 39; n is not without risks, but which is reflected in the price.
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